Can Uncle Goh withstand Mighty Hammer's Pincer Assault on Marine Parade GRC

Parliament is dissolved and Election Battle has begun !

GE 2015 will be a watershed election with 10 opposition parties contesting for all 89 seats in Parliament for the 1st time but whilst it creates lots of hype and energy, not many are expected to be voted into Parliament. In fact, the ground is sweet this time round for the ruling Party PAP for several reasons.

Can Magneto Goh hold the fort against Twin Typhoon, Wondergirl Nicole Seah and Supergirl Ting Ru.?

Let’s give credit where credit is due. The ruling party did deliver their promises on several fronts including

• Cutting down on foreign talent influx
• Keeping the lid on big tickets items such as more affordable HDB and more COEs for cars
• Pioneer Generation Package was a BIG HIT - recognizing the hard work and sacrifice of our Ah gongs and Ah Ma is heart rendering and we loved it
• The passing of Founding Prime Minister Mr LKY and the out pour of gratitude for what he has done for Singapore
• Wonderful and joyous celebration of SG 50 all year round
• They even managed to turn their Achilles’ heel, channeling the huge frustration on public transport to play on the empathy, sympathy and self-guilt of the electorate with Mr Lui’s doing the Hari-kiri.

So will PAP secure a landslide victory?

Unlikely , whilst WP was hit with the APHETC negative publicity, the decision by LTK to hold their grounds by keeping all their generals in Aljunied GRC to defend their forts instead of moving them into East Coast or Marine Parade GRC is a defensive but a very well calculated move. No need to show hand this time round.

Whilst Singaporean appreciate the government’s effort for the past 4 years, we are all clearly aware of the needs for opposition voices in the parliament and LTK and his comrades has done well as the co-driver in Parliament. So Aljunied GRC will remain the stronghold of WP and WP is guaranteed minimum 6 seats for GE 2015

PAP Game Plan – Ensuring Gen 4 Leaders are Voted in AT ALL COST !

The loss of Adjunied GRC in 2011 was painful lesson and major blow for PAP, they lost 3 ministers and 1 potential cabinet minister Ong Ye Kung. For GE 2015, they have reshuffle the deck to ensure that the new crop of leaders they hoped to groom will not suffer the same fate by tag teaming them with Super Heavy Weight Ministers to keep their renewal plan on track.

1. Ng Chee Meng, Chief of Defence tagging DPM Teo Chee Heng Pasir Ris-Punggol GRC
2. On Ye kun, former Deputy Chief of NTUC tagging Khaw boon wan minister of national development in Sembawang GRC 
3. Tan Wu Meng, Oncologist will join Deputy Prime Minister Tharman 
4. Koh Poh Koon, colorectal surgeon Son of punggol, now adopted boy of AMK with PM Lee in Ang Mo Kio GRC 
5. Chee Hong Tat, Former top civil servant,Second Permanent Secretary for Trade & Industry with  Minister of Defence Ng Eng Hen in Bishan-Toa Payoh GRC 

Potential Risk - Losing some SMC Battles But Winning the War 

Whilst it's an unlikely situation, PAP is psychologically prepared to forgo some SMCs by allowing “weaker” or “newer” candidates to fight solo in SMCs.. Candidates whom might be good and caring MP but are consider dispensable. Closely watched contest will mainly includes several SMCs including

• MacPherson SMC which Ms Kate Spade, Tin pei ling 3 way  Royal Rumble
• Potong Pasir SMC - Sitoh Vs Lina Chiam PK match
• Punggol East SMC where Friendly Sister Lee Li Lian Vs six-term PAP MP Charles Chong
• Fengshan SMC - Mouthwatering fight where 1st timer Ms Cheryl Chan, 39 from PAP Middleweight championship fight with WP Non-Constituency MP Gerald Giam
• Bukit Batok SMC (if SDP focus their effort to win the SMC instead of spreading thin once more).. Dr Chee Vs Red Dot Ong ...tantalizing ,.

Likely Election Outcome 

The most likely election results will be for WP to remain status quo by retaining Puggol East, Hougang and Adjunied GRC and Ms Lina Chiam of SPP to reclaim back Potong Pasir. So whilst we might have 1 more opposition, the % proportion remains the same 

• 2011 Parliament : 6 WP /81 PAP ( 93.1% PAP)  
• 2015 Parliament : 7 WP /82 PAP (92.1% PAP)

So It's an Anti Climax or is will there be a FREAK Result?

The potential Wildcard might be...... Marine Parade GRC 

Some Nuggets about Marine Parade GRC 

• Number of electors : 146,087 
• Led by Minister for Social and Family Development Tan Chuan-Jin. 
• Emeritus Senior Minister Goh Chok Tong is the longest-serving MP here. 
• Boundaries re-drawn to include Joo Chiat SMC - a WP Stronghold
• PAP’s best-performing ward, MacPherson is also taken out as a SMC

Marine Parade GRC 2011 Results (PAP Vs NSP)

In 2011, MP GRC has one of the slimmest results of just 55% against a relatively unknown NSP team.This time round, WP GRC member will most likely be anchor by Non-Constituency MP Yee Jenn Jong, a firm favourite, genuine Son of Joo Chiat boy who lost 2011 GE by just 388 votes. Other likely candidates include lawyer Terence Tan, 43, who has been on house visits with Mr Yee. Medical social worker Frieda Chan, 39 and dark horse, Cambridge-educated lawyer He Ting Ru who spent 10 years in UK and Germany before returning home. 

Nicole Seah for WP at Marine Parade - Yes and No :) 

Nicole Seah's popularity in GE 2011 is a strong testament to many choosing her as their preferred 'youth' candidate in the election. And Yes, she will be back in Singapore for GE 2015 , and Yes , she will be supporting for WP but No, she will not contest as a candidate, refer to her quote on her respect for WP's stringent policy about no parachuting, all have to start from the ground quote. (Respect for Hammer) but her rock star popularity and outright support for He Ting Ru might resonate with the electorate, sending across the message that Ting Ru is a proxy for her, whilst she will not contest this election, if she is given a spot to speak at WP rally, she could very well swing the youth votes over to WP's side with her charisma and conviction. 

Election 2011 - Nicole Seah Star Power 

Remember that Nicole Seah's team which comprises of several other low profile and relatively unknown candidates including Cheo Chai Chen, Abdul Salim,Harun  and Spencer Ng Ivan Yeo surprised many analysts by capturing a respectable 43.35% of the seats. 

If the NSP team can secure such high shares in 2011, never under estimate the power of a WP team couple with Nicole Seah's outright support... Never say Never

PAP Candidates at MP GRC 

The likely members of the five-man team include Mr Goh, Social and Family Development Minister Tan Chuan-Jin, Associate Professor Fatimah Lateef and Mr Seah Kian Peng. All four are currently MPs of the Marine Parade GRC. Current Moulmein-Kallang MP Edwin Tong is expected to replace MP Tin Pei Ling, whose MacPherson ward was hived off into an SMC with the recent electoral boundary changes.

Without An Alternative Voice ....

Online Straw Poll by Mothership.sg

Never say never, based on an online straw poll by mothership.sg prior to the announcement, the polls shows 56% voted for WP vs 44% for PAP

Major Casualty

Tan Chuan-Jin (10 January 1969) has served in the Cabinet since May 2014 as the Minister for Manpower (May 2014 - May 2015) and the Minister for Social and Family Development (since May 2015) might be the highest profile casualty is MP Fortress does fall. Mr Tan has worked extremely hard as a Minister of Manpower driving changes in the Foreign Talent quotas and reducing industrial and construction work sites accidents, his transfer to a lower profile MSFD portfolio does not bode well for his future career.. 

As for Uncle Goh, prior to the election, he has already contemplated stepping down but has accepted PM Lee’s request to fight One Final battle in Marine Parade, so if Marine Parade does falls, he might be grinning by having the cake and eat it too... and words in the market slate him as a potential presidential candidate next year :) 

Next Read >> PAP 50 Shades of White - Some White are Whiter..

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